Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-19 04:31Core Insights - The Chinese real estate industry is transitioning from new residential construction to rental asset operations, alongside the development of the REIT market, which may reshape the competitive landscape for developers and redefine long-term investment logic [1][3]. Group 1: C-REIT Expansion - Policy incentives are accelerating the expansion of C-REITs (China Real Estate Investment Trusts), with the market size expected to reach approximately $1 trillion in the long term [2][4]. - Developers are likely to benefit from this emerging long-term theme due to their large rental asset portfolios, although their participation in REIT issuance remains low [2][4]. - The analysis of developers' rental assets indicates that China Resources Land has the strongest potential for benefit from REIT spin-offs [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, favorable policies have accelerated the issuance of domestic REITs, expanding the asset range and issuer backgrounds [6]. - C-REITs are expected to become an important asset class over the next 10 to 20 years due to their stable returns and low correlation with the stock market [6]. - The limited trading volume of C-REITs suggests that listed developers are a good entry point into this rapidly expanding theme [6]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - In-depth analysis shows that China Resources Land (1109.HK) has the highest short-term benefit potential, followed by New World Development (601155.SS) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) due to their large shopping center portfolios [7]. - Other companies with rich non-retail rental assets, such as China Overseas Land (0688.HK), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Vanke (2202.HK), and Poly Developments (600048.SS), may also benefit in the medium term as the REIT coverage expands [7]. Group 4: C-REIT Development History - The development of C-REITs over the past 25 years can be divided into four phases: initial preparation, gradual development, accelerated promotion, and full-speed phase [9]. - The regulatory framework for C-REITs was first proposed in the early 2000s, with significant progress made since the first public REIT was listed in mid-2021 [8][9]. Group 5: Current Market Status - As of September 2025, there are 75 publicly listed C-REITs with a cumulative issuance scale of approximately RMB 200 billion and a market value of about RMB 220 billion [10]. - Despite significant growth since the first public REITs were listed, C-REITs currently account for only 0.15% of the total market value of China's stock market [10]. Group 6: Future Potential - The potential market size for C-REITs is estimated to reach $1 trillion, which is 32 times the current market value of approximately $31 billion [15][16]. - The estimated value of commercial properties completed since 2000 is around $4.9 trillion, indicating a significant opportunity for C-REITs to capture a larger market share [14][15].