订单排到明年但利润承压，磷酸铁锂行业探讨“反内卷”

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials industry is facing a "production increase without revenue increase" dilemma, prompting industry associations and leading companies to seek solutions [1] - A recent seminar highlighted the severe pressure on the LFP industry due to rising raw material costs and intense competition, leading to significant financial losses [1][3] - The industry has experienced over 36 months of continuous losses, with an average debt ratio of 67.81% among six listed companies [1][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The LFP materials sector is currently the most competitive and profit-constrained segment of the lithium battery supply chain, with a notable decline in prices from 173,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton, an 80.2% drop [3] - Despite a strong growth in lithium-ion battery exports, which reached $55.38 billion with a 26.75% year-on-year increase, the LFP industry struggles with overcapacity and low utilization rates, estimated at around 50% [3][4] - The top five companies in the LFP sector are operating at full capacity, yet only two are profitable, indicating an abnormal market condition [4][5] Group 2: Proposed Solutions - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has proposed three collaborative action initiatives to address the industry's challenges: 1. Establishing a cost index to rebuild market pricing logic and curb unhealthy competition [2][7] 2. Focusing on innovation to create new value growth avenues and shift from scale competition to quality competition [2][7] 3. Building a collaborative development ecosystem to balance supply and demand, with a forecast of a 30% increase in global energy storage battery shipments by 2026 [2][7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The LFP materials market is currently characterized by a significant gap between average selling prices and production costs, with the average transaction price being 9.7% lower than the average cost [6] - The industry is expected to see a demand surge, with projections indicating an additional million-ton demand for LFP materials in the next two years [7][8] - The association aims to create a cost database for various segments of the industry to facilitate better risk management and shared benefits across the supply chain [8]