订单排到明年但利润承压 磷酸铁锂行业探讨“反内卷”

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials industry is facing a "production increase without revenue increase" dilemma, prompting industry associations and leading companies to seek solutions [1] - A recent seminar highlighted the severe competition and profit pressure within the LFP sector, with companies experiencing over 36 months of continuous losses and an average debt ratio of 67.81% among six listed firms [1][3] Industry Challenges - The LFP materials sector is currently experiencing a significant shortage of chemical raw materials, leading to rising prices and a slowdown in production expansion [1] - The industry has been trapped in a cycle of overcapacity and homogenized competition since 2022, resulting in a stark contrast between costs and prices, making it the most profit-pressured segment of the lithium battery supply chain [3] - The average price of LFP materials has plummeted from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton by August 2025, marking an 80.2% decline [3] Market Dynamics - Despite a strong growth momentum in the lithium battery industry, with a 26.75% year-on-year increase in lithium-ion battery exports reaching $55.38 billion in the first nine months of 2025, the LFP sector's cost pressures remain unresolved [3][4] - The top five companies in the LFP industry are operating at full capacity, yet only two are profitable, indicating an abnormal market condition [4] - The industry is expected to reach a production capacity of 370,000 tons this year, with the top companies' orders extending to 2026, but high asset-liability ratios hinder external financing for expansion [4] Proposed Solutions - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has proposed three collaborative action initiatives: 1. Establishing a cost index as a benchmark to rebuild market pricing logic and curb vicious competition [2][6] 2. Focusing on innovation to create new value growth avenues and shift from scale competition to quality competition [2][6] 3. Building a collaborative development ecosystem to balance supply and demand, with a forecasted 30% increase in global energy storage battery shipments by 2026 [2][6] Future Outlook - The association aims to develop a cost database for various segments of the industry to facilitate capacity supply-demand forecasting and promote a consensus on shared risks and benefits across the supply chain [7]