Sugar Prices Fall on ISO's Forecast for a Sugar Surplus

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to a forecasted surplus in global sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year, primarily driven by increased output in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, reversing the previous year's deficit [2]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down by 0.16 (-1.07%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is down by 7.70 (-1.81%) [1]. - Sugar prices reached a three-week high recently due to tighter supplies from India, where the food ministry announced a reduced export quota of 1.5 million MT for the 2025/26 season [3]. Group 2: Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, with global sugar production expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 45 million MT, up from 44.5 million MT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5]. - India's Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) increased its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 31 million MT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025-26 to 8.7 million MT, up by 1.2 million MT from a previous estimate [4].