智通财经网·2025-11-19 06:37Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that pig prices experienced a bottom rebound in October, rising above 12 yuan/kg by the end of the month, but the sustainability of this upward trend is weak, leading to a price correction in November, with an average price of 11.80 yuan/kg as of November 10 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In October, some enterprises reduced the weight of pigs to accelerate cash flow, resulting in actual slaughter exceeding planned numbers. Following a slight rebound in prices, there is an increased tendency to secure profits due to pessimistic market expectations, leading to significant monthly slaughter pressure [2][4]. - Demand Side: The pace of secondary fattening increased in mid-October, providing slight support for short-term prices. However, after the price rebound, market participants returned to a wait-and-see attitude. Additionally, the rise in northern temperatures at the end of October suppressed meat consumption, and demand for cured meat in the south has not yet started, indicating insufficient demand support [2][4]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 0.70% month-on-month. Data from various sources show a mixed trend in October, with a slight decline in breeding sow samples and a minor increase in others, indicating limited willingness to reduce production capacity due to previous backlogs and a slight price rebound [3]. Policy and Market Outlook - With ongoing policy adjustments and low prices, capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. Recent meetings have emphasized production capacity control and other requirements, with leading enterprises responding positively. As of November 14, 2025, the average profit per head for self-bred pigs was -114.81 yuan, indicating continued losses in the industry. The combination of policy implementation and accumulated losses suggests a potential upward price turning point in the second half of 2026 [4][5]. Future Cycle Prediction - The core theme for the near future will be capacity control guided by policy, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing. The cost advantages of high-quality production capacity are expected to become more pronounced, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation. Although the industry index PB has rebounded, it remains below historical median levels, indicating a safety margin for valuations. Recommended stocks include leading breeding companies with high performance realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), along with other related companies like Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [5]. October Sales Data of Listed Companies - The average sales price in October decreased month-on-month for major companies, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope reporting average prices of 11.55, 11.57, 11.28, and 11.28 yuan/kg, respectively, reflecting declines of 10.33%, 12.22%, 11.53%, and 12.49% [6]. - Slaughter volumes increased significantly, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, New Hope, and Zhengbang Technology achieving sales of 708, 389, 169, and 91 million heads, respectively, marking increases of 26.97%, 17.07%, 20.87%, and 14.81% month-on-month [6]. - The average slaughter weight showed a slight increase, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, and New Hope reporting average weights of 126.41, 112.08, and 100.91 kg, respectively, indicating a general upward trend in average slaughter weights [6].