虽有出口配额和储备需求托底 但尿素宽松格局未改，价格上行空间有限

Core Viewpoint - Domestic urea prices have shown signs of stabilization in November after a period of decline, supported by increased export quotas and reserve demand [1][9]. Supply and Production - Urea production in China from January to October 2025 reached 59.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with October production at 5.88 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 87.5%, up 1.8% month-on-month, while natural gas-based urea production was at 72.7%, down 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - New production capacities are expected to be added, with a total of 511,000 tons projected for 2025, representing a growth rate of 5.6% [2]. Inventory and Demand - Urea inventory levels at production facilities have decreased, with a total of 1.4836 million tons reported as of November 13, down 94,500 tons from the previous week [3]. - Port inventories are around 82,000 tons, with expectations of increased exports due to new bidding rounds and quota increases [3]. - Agricultural demand remains low, but reserve demand is expected to be released, with a recent auction resulting in the sale of 29,285 tons of urea [7]. Price Trends - As of November 18, domestic urea prices have stabilized, with the main futures price at 1,662 yuan per ton, a 3% increase for the month [1]. - International urea prices have also shown signs of stabilization, with FOB prices in China at $400 per ton, up $15 from the previous week [6]. - The average domestic urea price has fluctuated between 1,500 and 2,000 yuan per ton throughout the year, with a central price of 1,750 yuan per ton [9]. Market Outlook - The recent increase in coal prices may provide some cost support for urea prices, but new production facilities are expected to increase supply pressure in the fourth quarter [9]. - Although export quotas have improved market conditions, domestic agricultural demand has significantly decreased compared to earlier in the year [9]. - The overall supply-demand balance for domestic urea remains loose, indicating limited potential for sustained price rebounds [9].