高市吓崩日本债市？10年期日债收益率创金融危机以来新高

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to a 17-year high due to investor speculation that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government will introduce a significantly larger fiscal spending plan than expected, leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year yield hit 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [2] - The market anticipates that the government will need to issue long-term bonds to fund its spending plans, which has led to concerns about fiscal risks [3][5] - The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.765%, marking the highest level since the global financial crisis in June 2008 [4] Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's economy is facing persistent downward risks, with preliminary data showing a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP for Q3, the first decline since Q1 2024 [3] - The significant rise in long-term bond yields is also attributed to investor reactions to Japan's recovering inflation, rising interest rates, and weak demand from traditional buyers [3] Group 3: Government Spending Plans - A ruling party committee is proposing a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) to fulfill commitments to stimulate the economy and protect households from rising prices [2] - Initial expectations for the supplementary budget were around 14 trillion yen, but recent indications suggest it could be even higher, potentially reaching 17 trillion yen [2][3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Investors are increasingly cautious about the fiscal risks associated with Kishida's ambitious spending agenda, which is seen as a response to the current economic challenges [3][5] - The recent depreciation of the yen has sparked discussions about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, with the dollar surpassing the critical 155 yen mark [5]