新粮上市期，东北玉米价格缘何上涨？

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices in Northeast China are experiencing a slow increase, with the growth rate surpassing that of North China and the national average, primarily due to farmers' reluctance to sell and a slow increase in market supply [1][2][9] Price Trends - As of November 15, the average daily price of corn in Northeast China rose from 2031 CNY/ton to 2051 CNY/ton, an increase of 20 CNY/ton or 0.98%, which is higher than the increases in North China (0.31%) and the national average (0.60%) [2][4] - The price increase is attributed to farmers' reluctance to sell and a slow increase in market supply [2][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average grain selling progress among farmers in Northeast China was 18% as of November 13, which is 2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [4] - The selling pace varies by region, with Liaoning showing a faster pace due to earlier harvests and higher initial market prices, while Jilin and Heilongjiang are slower due to lower temperatures and favorable storage conditions [4][8] - The port of Jinzhou's corn collection volume has decreased significantly compared to last year, indicating a decline in selling willingness among farmers [4][5] Future Price Expectations - The demand from downstream sectors is expected to increase, with traders actively purchasing and building inventories, which will support market prices [8][9] - The overall market price is projected to rise by 40-60 CNY/ton until mid-December, with a potential slight price correction of around 20 CNY/ton in late December due to increased supply [9] Influencing Factors - The sentiment of farmers and traders regarding selling will likely persist, impacting supply levels [8][9] - The end of wheat planting in North China by the end of November may lead to an increase in farmers' willingness to sell, potentially affecting the demand for Northeast corn [8][9]