有色60ETF（159881）涨超2.1%，供需与政策共振或支撑行业估值

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a supply-demand resonance with interest rate cuts, anticipating a dual increase in profitability and valuation [1] - In the industrial metals sector, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum has reached a peak of 98%, leading to a tight supply-demand situation and an annual increase in aluminum prices, with potential to exceed historical highs if demand surpasses expectations [1] - Copper prices are expected to be influenced by the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine, with a projected price center above 85,000 yuan/ton by 2026 and a global shortage of approximately 1% [1] Group 2 - In the energy metals category, strict enforcement of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo may result in a supply-demand gap exceeding 10% over the next two years [1] - The lithium industry is facing short-term supply disruptions, but demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, with global shipments projected to reach 550 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 70%, and a monthly shortfall of lithium carbonate of about 10,000 tons [1] - The supply-demand situation for lithium is expected to tighten by 2026, with price peaks potentially reaching 100,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The strategic attributes of minor metals are increasing, with limited supply growth for tungsten and potential price increases due to relaxed export controls [1] - China maintains a dominant position in the rare earth market, with a potential shortfall in the supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium oxide [1] - Antimony resources are scarce, and rapidly increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector may lead to an upward price trend following relaxed export controls [1] Group 4 - In the precious metals sector, the combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and central bank purchases of gold is expected to support a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Group 5 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [2] - This index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry in the Chinese A-share market, exhibiting both cyclical characteristics and some consumption attributes [2]