硅业分会：下游压力传导有限 多晶硅价格持稳基调未改

Core Insights - The domestic polysilicon market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining unchanged despite a decline in downstream prices and production cuts by some silicon wafer companies due to weak demand [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also stable compared to the previous week [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has contracted significantly, with expectations that domestic polysilicon production will drop to below 120,000 tons in November, representing a month-on-month decrease of approximately 14% [1][2]. - Despite the recent production cuts in downstream sectors, the overall tolerance for supply-demand changes among upstream and downstream companies remains high, indicating a strong willingness to maintain price stability [2]. Market Outlook - The consensus among industry players is to maintain price stability to avoid disrupting the fragile market equilibrium established since July, as further price declines could jeopardize the entire pricing structure of the industry [1][2]. - The forecast for December indicates that polysilicon production will remain around 120,000 tons, with an annual total production of approximately 1.33 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27.8% [2].