供应宽松 中长期豆粕仍将延续筑底

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal inventory has increased, while the EU's soybean meal imports have decreased compared to the previous year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high despite a slight downward adjustment in forecasts. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of the end of week 46 in 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory stands at 999,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week, reflecting a 3.05% week-on-week rise [1] - The European Commission reported that soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 season reached 6.74 million tons, down from 7.37 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) forecasts a soybean production of 177.7 million tons in 2026, despite a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the October forecast, marking a historical record [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Zhengxin Futures noted that U.S. soybean prices have fluctuated, with domestic soybean procurement for the near term nearly complete and long-term procurement gradually advancing. The short-term supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, leading to ample domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories [2] - Guodu Futures highlighted that the USDA's November supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 bushels per acre in September, aligning with market expectations. Domestic soybean imports have consistently exceeded historical levels since May, resulting in a high inventory [3] - The report also indicated that weather conditions in the new season's South American soybean regions are stable, putting pressure on both domestic and international prices, although cost support remains, suggesting a continuation of wide-ranging fluctuations in the market [3]