长城基金赵凤飞：量子科技未来怎么看？

Core Insights - Quantum technology is transitioning from laboratory research to commercial applications, with significant advancements made by global tech giants and Chinese prototypes like "Zu Chongzhi" and "Jiu Zhang" [1] - The Chinese government has identified quantum technology as a key future industry in its 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to foster its development as a new economic growth point [1] Industry Development - The quantum technology market in China is projected to reach $9.758 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.45% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The industry is currently in a critical transition phase, moving from "0 to 1" to "1 to N," indicating a mix of differentiation and localized breakthroughs [3] Bottlenecks in Industrialization - The main bottlenecks for quantum technology industrialization are technological maturity and supply chain support, particularly in quantum bit stability and error correction efficiency [5] - Key breakthroughs are needed in core technologies like quantum bit stability and the domestic production of essential equipment to ensure the technology's successful application [5] Commercialization Prospects - Quantum communication is expected to be the first area to achieve large-scale commercialization in China, supported by early investments and infrastructure development by major telecom operators [6] - Quantum computing is anticipated to have significant potential in sectors such as biomedicine, new materials development, and logistics optimization, where classical computers struggle with large-scale optimization problems [6] Supply Chain and Domestic Production - There is a strong demand for domestic alternatives for upstream core components and critical equipment, driven by cost reduction and the need for technological independence from Western suppliers [7] Market Sentiment and Investment Evaluation - The recent surge in quantum technology stocks is attributed to technological advancements and policy support, although it is primarily driven by short-term trading sentiment [8] - For evaluating the investment value of quantum technology companies that are still in the R&D phase, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio can be a useful metric, alongside assessments of the company's research team, product positioning, and regional policy support [9]