“财富效应”提振消费的关键在于普惠性

Core Insights - The concept of "deposit migration" has gained significant attention in the financial market this year, with expectations that residents will shift funds from low-yield assets like deposits to higher-yield investments such as stocks as interest rates decline and the stock market recovers [1] - The government is hopeful that the "wealth effect" from financial markets can enhance consumer spending and confidence, as reflected in the recent "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations emphasizing the construction of a strong financial nation [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Data indicates that "deposit migration into the market" is indeed occurring, with a decline in residents' demand deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, suggesting liquidity is moving towards capital markets [2] - From July to August, residents' demand deposits decreased by 1.3 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a potential flow of deposits into capital markets [2] - The M1 money supply is rising, showing that previously time-bound deposits are being "activated" and could enter the market as a backup force [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The new A-share accounts opened from June to September primarily come from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents showing lower participation levels [2] - The number of new A-share accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose from 1.65 million to 2.94 million between June and September, but remains significantly lower than the peak of 6.85 million in October 2024 and 7.2 million in April 2015, indicating that the current market drive is more from high-net-worth individuals rather than retail investors [2] Group 3: Financial Inclusion - To truly harness the "wealth effect" for high-quality development, it is essential to enhance the inclusiveness of the financial system, allowing more ordinary residents to participate and benefit from capital market growth [4] - Financial markets need to focus on "breadth" and "inclusivity," encouraging financial institutions to develop investment tools aimed at the general public, such as low-fee, low-threshold mutual funds, index ETFs, and target-date funds [4] - Promoting automated investment options and simplifying investment education can help lower barriers for ordinary investors, thereby enhancing their confidence in consumption and investment [4]