天胶供给将趋于减弱 胶价或震荡偏强走势

Core Insights - The prices of natural rubber in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are reported at $1850, $1850, and $1740 per ton respectively, while the price for Yunnan's SCR5 is quoted at 14,850 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market for natural rubber shows a closing price of 15,440 CNY per ton on November 19, with a daily increase of 0.78% and a trading volume of 236,458 contracts [2] - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 452,600 tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.70% from the previous period [3] - The production of rubber tire outer casings in China has seen a year-on-year decline of 2.5% in October 2025, with a total production of 97.95 million units [3] - Future supply of natural rubber in China is expected to weaken due to the cessation of tapping in Yunnan and a gradual reduction in Hainan, while demand remains lukewarm [4] Price Overview - The current prices for natural rubber are as follows: STR20 and SMR20 at $1850 per ton, SIR20 at $1740 per ton, and SCR5 at 14,850 CNY per ton [1][2] - The futures market indicates a price fluctuation with a high of 15,510 CNY per ton and a low of 15,280 CNY per ton on November 19 [2] Inventory and Production Data - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory consists of 66,600 tons in bonded warehouses and 386,000 tons in general trade, with the latter showing a 1.13% increase [3] - The entry and exit rates for bonded warehouses have decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in inventory turnover [3] Market Outlook - The market outlook suggests a potential for stronger price fluctuations due to reduced supply from key production areas and ongoing policy support [4]