日本10年期国债收益率创金融危机以来新高 机构担忧财政进一步恶化

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with yields across various maturities rising sharply, particularly the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.765%, the highest since June 2008 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in the bond market is primarily driven by investor concerns regarding the potential for a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government [2][6]. - The 20-year bond yield has reached 2.815%, the highest since 1999, while the 40-year bond yield has hit a historical peak of 3.695% [3]. Group 2: Auction Impact - The market's pessimism has affected the latest auction of Japanese government bonds, with the subscription ratio for the 20-year bond auction falling to 3.28 from the previous 3.56 [5]. - Analysts suggest that the government's potential issuance of long-term bonds to fund its spending plans is a significant concern for investors [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that as investors worry about the scale of the proposed stimulus exceeding expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, putting pressure on long-term bonds and the yen [6]. - The market anticipates that the yields on Japanese government bonds may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, closely monitoring the government's final decisions on fiscal stimulus and the central bank's monetary policy stance [6].