上海交大沈文忠: 相关部门正在制定光伏组件标准,标准是功率大小

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to eliminate outdated production capacity, with a focus on power ratings of solar cells and modules as key indicators for procurement standards [1] Group 1: Industry Standards and Regulations - Relevant authorities are developing standards for photovoltaic modules, categorizing them into three power levels based on efficiency, which will be crucial for state-owned enterprise procurement [1] - The National Market Supervision Administration and the National Standardization Administration have proposed a draft that classifies silicon photovoltaic modules into three types: TOPCon, BC, and HJT, each with three efficiency levels [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capacity - The industry currently has an excess capacity of 800GW to 1000GW for TOPCon technology, while the annual demand is approximately 400GW, indicating a significant oversupply [4] - It is projected that half of the TOPCon capacity will be eliminated in the near future due to the need to meet new standards [4] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Future Trends - The photovoltaic industry has seen rapid technological innovations aimed at increasing power and efficiency, with TOPCon expected to remain the dominant technology until 2026 [4] - The slow expansion of BC technology capacity is attributed to high technical barriers and limited participation, with expected shipments reaching around 100GW [4]