【财经分析】信用债低位震荡中不乏机遇 机构建议抓牢事件驱动型配置窗口

Core Viewpoint - The credit spread in the bond market has remained low and volatile throughout the year, with expectations that it will continue to stay at low levels until 2026, barring significant credit risk events [1][3]. Credit Spread Dynamics - As of November 18, the interbank credit bond market showed slight fluctuations in yields, with AAA-rated 3-month notes rising by 1 basis point to 1.61%, while 3-year yields fell by 1 basis point to 1.86%, and 5-year yields remained stable around 1.99% [2]. - The low credit spread is attributed to a relatively abundant market liquidity due to central bank policies, stable demand for credit bonds, and improving corporate profitability, which has reduced the market's risk premium requirements [3]. Market Expectations and Policy Impact - Strong expectations for "wide credit" policies, including credit support tools and financing for real estate companies, are expected to alleviate credit pressures in specific sectors and enhance market confidence in credit bonds [3]. - Analysts predict that credit spreads will exhibit both temporary widening and sustained compression due to policy support and specific event impacts [3]. Investment Strategy and Timing - The timing of credit bond investments should focus on incremental events, as credit bonds typically do not move independently from interest rate bonds [4]. - Historical performance indicates that different driving factors lead to asymmetric market changes, with funding-driven adjustments affecting short-term bonds and asset allocation-driven adjustments impacting long-term bonds [5]. Recommendations for Credit Bond Investments - Investment focus should be on 3 to 5-year high-grade credit bonds and 4 to 5-year subordinated bonds, while being cautious with ultra-long credit bonds [6][7]. - High-grade credit bonds are supported by incremental funds from amortized cost bond funds, which have shifted from interest rate bonds to credit bonds since September 2025 [6]. - Subordinated bonds present a trading opportunity due to their recent underperformance compared to high-grade bonds, with a spread of approximately 20 basis points [7]. - Quality urban investment and industrial bonds, particularly those with around 2-year maturities, are suitable for investors seeking stable coupon income [7]. - Caution is advised for ultra-long credit bonds due to limited further yield decline potential and signs of reduced institutional demand [7].