Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2025-11-19 11:39Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]