专家预测：十年内 至少还有一半的新车带油箱

Core Insights - The competition between electric and hybrid vehicles is intensifying as pure electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to exceed 50% of the new energy vehicle market by 2025 [1] - The upcoming reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of fuel and electric vehicle sales [2] - According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," it is predicted that by 2035, 52% of vehicles will still have internal combustion engines [2] Group 1 - By 2035, over 80% of new passenger vehicles sold will be new energy vehicles, with a BEV to PHEV ratio of 6:4, indicating that fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles will account for 52% of sales [2] - In 2030, the proportion of new vehicles with fuel tanks is expected to be 65%, decreasing to 32% by 2040 [3] - The sales growth of pure electric vehicles has been rapid, with a 20% year-on-year increase in October, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [3] Group 2 - The wholesale structure shows that pure electric vehicle sales have surpassed 60%, with 62% of new energy vehicle sales being pure electric, a 4% increase year-on-year [3] - The market share of pure electric vehicles has dramatically shifted from 49% to 51% last year to 74% to 26% this year, indicating a significant change in consumer preference [3]