Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-19 13:15Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a crucial platform for global investors to share in the growth dividends of China's core assets, with significant inflows of southbound capital [1][12] - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchases of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [1] - The influx of long-term mainland funds, primarily from insurance and public offerings, is expected to support a "slow bull" market in Hong Kong [1][8] Southbound Capital Inflows - As of November 19, southbound capital net inflows through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflows since the launch of the Stock Connect have surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][3] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has become a core driver of liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, with its share of total market turnover rising from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - The total market value of southbound capital holdings exceeded 6.3 trillion HKD by the end of the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [3] Sector and Stock Preferences - The allocation of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with the banking sector previously dominating but now more evenly distributed across industries, including media, pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][4] - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now characterized by a "technology + dividend" strategy, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major beneficiaries [4] Fund Composition - Insurance funds and public funds constitute the majority of southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB (approximately 1.4 trillion HKD) by the end of the third quarter [7] - Public fund holdings reached 1.01 trillion RMB, accounting for about 18% of total southbound capital [7] Future Projections - Predictions indicate that southbound capital could see an additional inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential total increase of 10 trillion RMB (approximately 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [8] - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market fundamentals and support a "slow bull" market [8][9] Market Valuation and Asset Supply - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as having significant allocation value, with lower valuation levels compared to other major global markets [11] - The influx of quality companies listing in Hong Kong is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing market liquidity and attracting more capital [12][13] Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that periods of outperformance in the Hong Kong stock market have been driven by the scarcity of assets, with current trends reflecting similar dynamics as seen in previous advantageous periods [14]