BLS Scraps October Jobs Report on Lack of Household Data

Core Insights - The cancellation of the October jobs report is surprising, especially since businesses maintain payroll records, making data retrieval seemingly straightforward [1][2] - The decision to combine October data with the November release, which will be published in December, indicates ongoing challenges in data collection due to the shutdown [2][3] Labor Market Implications - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lack crucial October labor market data during its December 9 meeting, relying instead on alternative data sources and a delayed September jobs report [3][4] - The FOMC will need to adjust its reliance on official statistics, particularly non-farm payrolls, due to recognized measurement issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [4][5] Alternative Data Analysis - Bloomberg Economics has developed an alternative data-based labor market index indicating that the labor market is currently one standard deviation weaker than historical norms [6] - If the Federal Reserve considers this alternative data, it may provide justification for a potential rate cut, even if not all members agree on the decision [6]