Bonds Hint at Rebound: Crypto Daybook Americas

Market Sentiment - Risk-off sentiment has intensified in Asian trading, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly falling below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, stabilizing near $91,000, marking a 4.5% drop over 24 hours [1] - Major alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP, BNB, and SOL also experienced declines, although they outperformed Bitcoin [1] Federal Reserve Influence - Experts attribute Bitcoin's significant monthly decline to diminishing expectations of a December Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, with the probability of a cut dropping from approximately 70% to 42% in about a week [2][3] - The shift in expectations was influenced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments, leading investors to reassess individual FOMC member preferences, indicating that a rate cut was not a consensus view [3] Treasury Market Insights - Data from ING indicates an increase in open interest for bullish U.S. Treasury bond options, suggesting traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields [3] - This sentiment implies expectations of weaker U.S. economic data, which could revive hopes for quicker Fed rate cuts [4] Dollar and Crypto Market Dynamics - The current outlook for Bitcoin bulls may signal a potential turning point, as declining yields and a softer dollar have historically supported crypto rebounds [4] - The U.S. dollar index remains strong, with potential to retest the August 1 swing high of 100.25, which could impact risk assets, including Bitcoin [5]