黄金进口激增200%，印度逆差创纪录

Core Insights - India's trade balance has reached a significant turning point, with a record merchandise trade deficit of $41.68 billion in October, compared to $26.22 billion in the same month last year [1] - Merchandise exports fell by 11.8% to $34.38 billion, marking the lowest level in 11 months, while imports surged by 16.66% to a historic high of $76.06 billion [1] - The surge in gold imports, which increased by 200% to $14.7 billion, was driven by consumer demand during the festive season, particularly the Diwali festival [2] Trade Performance - Exports to the United States decreased by 8.6% to $6.3 billion, with declines also noted in exports to the UAE (-10.2%), Netherlands (-22.75%), and the UK (-27.16%) [1] - Non-oil and non-gemstone jewelry exports fell by 10.15% to $28.14 billion, with significant declines in engineering goods (-16.71%), pharmaceuticals (-5.15%), organic and inorganic chemicals (-21.02%), and garments (-12.88%) [1] - Gem and jewelry exports dropped nearly 31% in October, with cut and polished diamond exports down by nearly 27% [2] Economic Impact - The gem and jewelry sector employs approximately 5 million people and contributes about 7% to India's GDP, indicating that the decline in exports could have broader economic implications [2] - ICRA Research forecasts a decrease in merchandise imports in the months following the festive season, but warns of a potential significant widening of the current account deficit to 2.4% to 2.5% of GDP in the third quarter of FY2025 [3] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have seen some softening of positions, but no agreement has been reached yet [3]