Standard Chartered Sees Year-End Bitcoin Rally Amid Sell-Off Signals

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback after falling below the $90,000 level, but Standard Chartered suggests that the recent sell-off may have reached its conclusion [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research indicated that the recent pullback is a rapid version of previous corrections seen in the last couple of years [2] - Multiple on-chain metrics, including MicroStrategy's mNAV, have hit absolute lows, with mNAV currently at 1.0 [2][3] - The realized loss margin for Bitcoin stands at -16%, which is below the historically significant threshold of -12% associated with potential rebounds [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart has recently switched to sell mode, which historically has led to average declines of 61% [4] - Applying this average decline to the current market structure suggests a potential move towards $40,000 for Bitcoin [5] Group 3: Macro Context - Despite a $7 trillion increase in global M2 money supply since late 2024, Bitcoin has not fully capitalized on this liquidity surge due to capital being absorbed by government debt and short-term instruments yielding 4-5% [7] - The presence of risk-free alternatives with tangible returns has increased the opportunity cost for speculative assets like Bitcoin, contributing to volatile trading patterns [8]