恒生科技指数10月以来回撤超15%，长期逻辑不改，市场关注AI落地效果

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the Hong Kong stock market, led by technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, has experienced a bull market, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 30% and the Hang Seng Tech Index exceeding 50%. However, since October, the Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a significant pullback of over 15% in less than two months, with a recent four-day losing streak. Analysts believe that this short-term adjustment does not alter the long-term investment logic for leading tech stocks in Hong Kong, especially with the gradual implementation of AI technologies by companies like Tencent and Alibaba, which is expected to drive a second growth phase for internet enterprises. The long-term investment value of the Hang Seng Tech Index remains promising due to valuation advantages, funding support, and AI-driven industrial upgrades [1][5][6]. Group 1 - The performance of Hong Kong tech stocks has drastically changed since October, with a clear divide in their fortunes. Before October, 9 out of 30 stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index saw gains exceeding 100%, with the top performer, Hua Hong Semiconductor, rising nearly 270%. In contrast, since October, only 4 stocks have risen, while 7 have dropped over 20%, including Li Auto and Sunny Optical, which fell more than 27% [3][4]. - The recent decline in the Hang Seng Tech Index is attributed to three main factors: excessive prior gains leading to profit-taking, the U.S. imposing tariffs and tightening software export controls, and a mini-crash in U.S. AI stocks that reduced global tech risk appetite. Additionally, year-end fund reallocation has shifted focus from high-volatility tech stocks to more stable dividend-paying assets [4][6]. Group 2 - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment logic for the Hang Seng Tech Index remains intact. Analysts view the index's constituent stocks as scarce assets for both domestic and global investors, with expectations of a sustained bull market over the next two to three years, driven by economic transformation [6][7]. - The market is increasingly focused on the tangible effects of AI implementation rather than speculative narratives. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are demonstrating significant revenue growth and investment in AI, with Tencent reporting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase and Alibaba planning substantial investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [9][10]. - The global AI asset pricing has shifted from a broad premium to a selective approach, emphasizing verifiable profitability over mere technological capabilities. This structural revaluation is expected to benefit comprehensive platforms like Tencent and Alibaba, while smaller companies lacking robust ecosystems may face marginalization [10].