Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-20 00:05Core Insights - The release of China's third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) highlights the country's commitment to low-carbon development strategy [1] Group 1: Carbon Market and Green Certificate Market - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a comprehensive upgrade of the carbon reduction "toolbox" centered around the carbon market and green certificate market is expected [1] - The expansion of the carbon market and adjustment of quotas are projected to drive carbon prices up to 80-90 RMB/ton between 2028 and 2030, aiding in the elimination of outdated production capacity in emission-intensive industries [1] - Adjustments in supply and demand within the green certificate market are anticipated to lead to a slight price correction for green certificates to 6-6.5 RMB/unit by 2026, presenting challenges and opportunities for high-energy-consuming and export industries in transitioning to green electricity [1] Group 2: Product Carbon Footprint Management - Product carbon footprint management is expected to enhance the resilience of export enterprises and foster "green competitiveness" [1] - The updates to the "toolbox" will drive structural adjustments across multiple industries [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in carbon assets, industries benefiting from low-carbon transitions, and companies with outstanding green performance [1]