央行重启债券买卖，四季度配置再平衡持续推进

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to be a process of asset allocation rebalancing, with significant importance placed on asset allocation this year, particularly in the context of the equity market's substantial rise in the second and third quarters [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently announced the resumption of bond buying, which is a liquidity injection tool aimed at addressing short-term liquidity pressures in the bond market [1][2] - The PBOC's bond buying in October was limited to 20 billion, but if extended over a month, it could return to a normal level of around 100 billion, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to stabilize the bond market, particularly for ten-year government bonds, suggesting that the market will enter a period of reduced volatility [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Supply Pressure - The bond market is expected to return to its allocation characteristics, with a focus on longer-duration bonds that exhibit lower volatility, particularly the ten-year bonds [3] - There is significant supply pressure in the bond market due to weak demand from the real economy, but this pressure is expected to ease towards the end of the year, especially after November [3][4] - The year-end period is typically a time when large traditional bond investment institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, engage in pre-allocating bonds for the upcoming year, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand [3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Outlook - Current fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be moderate, with a focus on 500 billion in policy financial tools and another 500 billion in advance local government bond issuance, which may support stable economic growth but not lead to significant upturns [4] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI and financing data suggesting that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, which is reflected in the real estate sector as well [4] - The bond market is seen as relatively favorable under these conditions, with limited upward risks and a stable environment expected through the year-end window [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The bond market is viewed as having high allocation value, particularly from November to the pre-Spring Festival period, with limited space for further declines in yields [5] - The central bank's lack of intent to lower interbank funding prices suggests that the bond market will maintain a stable yield level, with the ten-year government bond being a key focus for investors seeking both allocation and trading opportunities [5][6] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as an advantageous investment tool, providing easy access to the bond market and supporting flexible trading options for investors [6]