中信建投:医药零售行业转型变革稳步推进 关注后续多元催化
智通财经网·2025-11-20 01:54

Traditional Chinese Medicine - The short-term pressure on the industry base is expected to gradually ease, with channel adjustments accelerating and a recovery in demand anticipated by year-end, leading to improvements for most companies on a low base [1] - The current valuation of the sector is at a low level, with institutional holdings being low, indicating potential for valuation improvement as the fundamentals of the traditional Chinese medicine industry continue to improve [1] - Long-term transformation is underway, with companies actively transitioning towards biopharmaceuticals and chemical drug innovation to create a second growth curve, and the consumer goods nature of traditional Chinese medicine companies offers significant brand extension opportunities [1] Blood Products - The supply side is expected to see an increase in the number of plasma stations as local "14th Five-Year" plans are implemented, with ongoing industry consolidation and mergers anticipated [2] - On the demand side, while the short-term price of albumin is under pressure, there is significant growth potential for demand in immunoglobulin and factor products, with ongoing research and development of new products [2] - The variety of blood products is expected to increase, which will drive profit margins from plasma extraction [2] Vaccines - The industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, but there is optimism for improved sales and contributions from new products [3] - Recent policies related to commercial insurance, medical prevention integration, and industry mergers provide a solid foundation for future development in the vaccine sector [3] - The expansion of vaccine companies into international markets is accelerating, with expectations for progress in overseas market development [3] Pharmaceutical Retail - The industry is showing clear signs of marginal improvement, with better funding conditions and sustained demand for four categories of drugs, leading to expected same-store sales growth [4] - The sector's valuation is at historical lows, with low institutional holdings, and there is anticipation for demand recovery due to respiratory diseases and increased industry concentration [4] - Long-term transformation is being actively pursued by leading pharmacies, with pilot projects expected to yield incremental contributions and valuation recovery by 2026 [4] Pharmaceutical Distribution - The growth of medical insurance expenditures is stable, providing long-term market momentum [5] - The high entry barriers for new players indicate potential for increased industry concentration [5] - Innovative business models are accelerating growth and contributing additional revenue [5] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The policy framework for state-owned enterprise reform has matured, with clear reform directions and ongoing implementation of market value management and merger policies [6] - The ongoing "14th Five-Year" plan is expected to improve the operations and valuations of related enterprises [6]