“反内卷”为盾，需求为矛，化工有望迎来新一轮景气周期

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is approaching the end of its capital expenditure cycle, with a gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics, potentially accelerated by "anti-involution" measures [2][3] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Investment Trends - As of H1 2025, the total construction projects of listed companies in the basic chemical sector amount to 350.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [1][2] - From January to August 2025, the fixed asset investment completion in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry and chemical fiber shows a year-on-year change of -5.2% and +9.3%, respectively, indicating a significant decline compared to 2021-2022 [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capital expenditure and capacity investment cycle in the chemical industry is nearing its end, with a slow recovery in the supply landscape [2] - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency to expand domestic demand [2] - In 2023, China's chemical product sales reached approximately 2.24 trillion euros, accounting for 43.1% of global chemical product sales, ranking first globally [2] - Despite external adverse factors, China's export resilience remains strong, with an export amount of 328.6 billion USD in September 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The chemical industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in performance and valuation driven by "anti-involution" policies, with a favorable supply-demand balance [2][3] - As of October 24, 2025, the price spread of major chemical products is at a low level since 2020, while refrigerant product prices are at a high level [2] - The refrigerant industry will officially enter a quota system in 2024, with average dynamic PE and PB values of 44.23 and 3.59 times, respectively [2] - As of October 17, 2025, the basic chemical sector's PE and PB valuations are 28.10 and 2.05 times, respectively [2] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with diverse products and large scale, prioritizing sectors that are ahead in "anti-involution" measures, and exploring industries with significant potential for capacity reduction [3]