中信证券：港股市场明年将迎来第二轮估值修复与业绩复苏行情

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus measures, leading to a recovery in performance and valuation by 2026 [1][2] - Emerging industries in Hong Kong stocks, as per the "14th Five-Year Plan," include solid-state batteries, brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and controllable nuclear fusion [1] - Bloomberg consensus forecasts indicate that Hong Kong stock performance will bottom out in 2025, with expected revenue and profit growth rates of 3.6% and 3.5% respectively, and a significant increase to 5.5% and 9.2% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The liquidity environment in China has shown a notable "wealth effect," with a trend of residents reallocating deposits, which is expected to continue [1] - There is a low allocation of mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks, suggesting that southbound capital will continue to increase its allocation, particularly through ETF channels [1] - The Hong Kong market is poised to benefit from the outflow of liquidity from domestic and international markets, along with the ongoing narrative surrounding AI [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further performance resurgence in 2026, driven by a rebound in fundamentals and significant valuation discounts [2] - Recommended long-term investment directions include: 1) Technology sector, particularly AI-related segments and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare sector, especially biotechnology; 3) Resource commodities benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization; 4) Essential consumer goods expected to see valuation recovery as the domestic economy improves; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [2]