中芯国际毛利率及产能指标修复,存储资本支出或对位元出货支撑有限 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-11-20 02:04

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.382 billion, a 7.8% quarter-on-quarter increase, exceeding previous guidance [1][2] - Gross margin improved to 22.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, also above prior guidance [1][2] - Capacity utilization rose to 95.8%, a 3.3 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, with monthly capacity exceeding 1 million wafers [1][2] Group 1: SMIC Performance - In Q3 2025, SMIC's revenue, gross margin, and capacity metrics showed expected recovery [2] - The company reported an increase in shipment volume and average selling price quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the improved gross margin [2] - The revenue contribution from consumer electronics, industrial and automotive, and computers and tablets increased quarter-on-quarter, while mobile revenue saw a seasonal decline [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - Major storage manufacturers are raising prices, with SanDisk increasing NAND Flash contract prices by 50% in November, following a 10% increase in September [3] - Samsung Electronics raised prices of certain DRAM chips (DDR5) by 60% compared to September [3] - TrendForce indicates that while average selling prices for memory continue to rise, capital expenditure for bit output growth in 2026 will be limited [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The demand for AI computing power and the push for semiconductor self-sufficiency are expected to enhance domestic foundry capabilities in advanced processes and larger production volumes [4] - Companies such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are recommended for their anticipated performance and valuation improvements [4] - Attention is also drawn to the expansion of storage capacity and its impact on domestic semiconductor front-end and bonding equipment, as well as HBM's influence on advanced packaging technologies [4]