光伏行业反内卷带来行业曙光 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with the main industry chain showing signs of reduced losses and improved margins, while the auxiliary industry chain remains stable [2][9]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the price of silicon materials rebounded from 34,000 yuan/ton to 51,000 yuan/ton, leading to a transmission of price increases in silicon wafers and batteries, although component prices remained stable due to poor acceptance in power stations [8]. - Q3 2025 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of losses for the main photovoltaic industry chain, but the ongoing anti-involution process is expected to restore prices to reasonable levels, potentially leading to industry valuation recovery [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The overall profitability of the main industry chain improved in Q3 2025, with both gross and net profit margins showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - Capital expenditure in the photovoltaic sector remains low, with companies showing limited willingness to expand production amid ongoing losses [3]. - The asset-liability ratio for the industry remains high, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment, indicating a focus on survival rather than growth [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Industry inventory levels have increased, with polysilicon inventory remaining high [6]. - Domestic photovoltaic installations are entering a low season, with medium to long-term global installation growth expected to be between 5% and 10% [7]. - The photovoltaic sector is primarily positioned to meet new electricity demand, with limited short-term capacity to replace traditional energy sources [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures are expected to improve industry supply and demand dynamics, with companies in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components likely to benefit from valuation recovery [10]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and perovskite solar cells, present opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the industry [10].