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25Q3光伏组件出口超预期,储能需求旺盛 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-11-20 02:06

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and stability in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with significant increases in production and demand forecasts for batteries and solar components in China and globally [1][2][3][4]. Production Summary - In November 2025, China's production of power, storage, and consumer batteries is projected to reach 209 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 64.6%, with energy storage cells accounting for approximately 33.6% of the total [1]. - Global production for the same category is expected to be 228 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [1]. - Domestic photovoltaic module production is forecasted to be below 44.5 GW in November, with potential for recovery in production levels if prices rebound [1]. Price Summary - In October 2025, the average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.43 to 0.7487 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 10% increase month-on-month [2]. - The average price for 4-hour lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems increased by 23.23% month-on-month, while the 2-hour systems saw a decrease of 5.5% [2]. - The price of polysilicon dense material was reported at 52.00 CNY/kg, with a decline in the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers [2]. Demand Summary - In September 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 53.8% [3]. - The cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to September 2025 reached 240.27 GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [3]. - In September 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components was 2.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 39.0% [3]. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines on promoting the integrated development of renewable energy on November 12, 2025 [4]. - The World Power Battery Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan, on November 12-13, 2025 [4]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Haibo Si Chuang and CATL to deepen collaboration in the energy storage sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on photovoltaic and energy storage-related companies, highlighting significant growth in installed capacity and export values [4]. Recommended companies include: - Sunshine Power (300274.SZ) - Nandu Power (300068.SZ) - Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ) - Huashengchang (002980.SZ) - Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [4].