Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a recent pullback in China Hongqiao's stock, JPMorgan sees this as a buying opportunity for investors, maintaining a constructive outlook on the aluminum industry through 2026 [1] - JPMorgan has upgraded the target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 26.5 to HKD 34, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1] - The positive outlook for the aluminum industry is supported by resilient global demand, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's basic forecast indicates that new supply from Indonesia will lead to a moderate surplus by 2026, but potential supply disruption risks and slower overseas restarts may tighten the market beyond their basic predictions [1] - The firm expects significant volatility in aluminum stocks in the near term, with projected earnings growth for the fiscal year 2026 estimated at 10-16% [1] - China Hongqiao is viewed as undervalued, benefiting from healthy marginal profits and a low production cost advantage, making it more competitive among global peers [1] Group 3 - Another factor supporting JPMorgan's optimistic view on China Hongqiao is the company's demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend yield exceeding 6% providing solid support for the stock price [1]
小摩：回调创造买入良机 上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至34港元