钢材：表需低位有修复预期 影响卷螺差走扩

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a weak downward trend, with fluctuating demand and supply dynamics affecting prices and inventory levels [6] Pricing - Tangshan steel billet remains stable at 3040 yuan, while Shanghai rebar increased by 10 yuan to 3060 yuan per ton, and hot-rolled coil also rose by 10 yuan to 3300 yuan per ton [1] Cost and Profit - The operating rate and daily output of coal mines remain low, leading to a decrease in coal inventories. Iron ore demand remains high, contributing to inventory accumulation. Steel profits have significantly declined from their peak, with cold-rolled steel showing the highest profit, followed by steel billets, hot-rolled, and rebar [2] Supply - From January to October, iron element production increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Although molten iron production has recently declined, it has shown a month-on-month increase of 26,600 tons to 2,368,800 tons. Seasonal production cuts due to high inventory levels have led to a decrease in the output of the five major steel products [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are at a high level, supported by low prices. Overall demand has decreased compared to the first half of the year and is weaker than the fourth quarter of last year, with a month-on-month decline of 63,000 tons to 8,600,000 tons [4] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 263,000 tons to 14,773,500 tons, with rebar inventory down by 164,000 tons to 5,762,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil inventory slightly increased by 700 tons to 4,100,000 tons, indicating a need for further production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [5] Market Outlook - The market is characterized by a weak price trend, with the price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil recovering to 215 yuan. The supply-demand dynamics for rebar and hot-rolled coil are diverging, with rebar showing an increase in both supply and demand, while hot-rolled coil remains balanced. Iron ore port inventories continue to accumulate, suggesting a shift towards a loose supply of iron elements in the near future [6]