智通财经网·2025-11-20 02:28Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the lithium battery industry, highlighting four key investment themes: focus on industry leaders in segmented fields, growth in energy storage battery demand, price increases in the supply chain, and advancements in solid-state battery technology [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The lithium battery sector is expected to see revenue and net profit growth of 0.14% and -30.70% respectively in 2024, with significant growth of 12.81% and 28.38% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a two-digit growth trend despite notable differentiation among segments [1] - Since 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 79.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 63.25 percentage points [1] Group 2: Demand and Sales - In the first nine months of 2025, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 14.4786 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.47%, with global power battery installations at 811.8 GWh, up 34.70% [2] - In China, new energy vehicle sales for the same period totaled 12.911 million units, reflecting a 32.41% year-on-year growth, driven by policy support and improved cost-performance [2] - The total production of power batteries and other batteries in China reached 1,292.5 GWh, marking a 51.30% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued double-digit growth in 2026 [2] - China's energy storage battery shipments reached 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a 62.62% increase year-on-year, with an anticipated annual growth rate exceeding 75% [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantage and Pricing - China holds a significant global competitive advantage in the lithium battery sector, with six of the top ten global power battery companies from China, accounting for 68.2% of the market share, and over 90% in energy storage [3] - Overall prices in the supply chain are expected to stabilize with a slight increase, particularly in cobalt-related products and electrolyte segments, while lithium carbonate prices have bottomed out [3] - The average price of key materials in the lithium industry is projected to rise steadily in 2026 compared to 2025, supporting continued performance growth in the sector [3]