欧元承压1.1530 美联储纪要定方向

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by the contrasting economic data from the Eurozone and the US, with upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data expected to be critical for future direction [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - Eurozone's October harmonized CPI decreased to 2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation remained stable at 2.4%, leading the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes and maintain a neutral dovish policy, resulting in a lack of support for the Euro [1] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims data indicating a softening, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts; however, a 1.4% month-on-month increase in August factory orders mitigates downward concerns [1] - The resilience of the US dollar index is attributed to global stock market sell-offs that have triggered safe-haven demand [1] Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate has retreated from a high of 1.1918, with a mild rebound from a low of 1.1468, currently consolidating around 1.1530; key support levels are at 1.1541 and 1.1468, while resistance levels are at 1.1700 and the 1.1654-94 cloud area [2] - MACD indicates a reduction in downward momentum, and RSI shows a slight recovery, but the ADX below 16 suggests a weak trend, indicating potential for continued fluctuation before data releases [2] - Future movements will depend on three main variables: US economic data, the recovery strength of the Eurozone, and global risk sentiment; short-term trading may remain within the 1.1468-1.1700 range, with a stable position above 1.1600 potentially targeting 1.1655-1.1700, while a drop below 1.1541 could lead to a decline towards 1.1468 [2]