Core Insights - Gold prices surged significantly during the Asian trading session on November 20, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid volatile U.S. stock markets and the anticipation of important U.S. economic data [1] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders and investors are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data releases, including the FOMC meeting minutes and the labor department's employment report, which are expected to provide insights into the future direction of U.S. interest rates [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has surpassed 24, indicating heightened market anxiety and reaching a one-month high [3] - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, influenced by moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The prolonged government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, leading to concerns that upcoming reports may restrict the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy further [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with the likelihood now below 50%, reflecting a more cautious market sentiment compared to earlier predictions [4] - Analysts attribute the decline in rate cut expectations partly to the data scarcity caused by the government shutdown and ongoing concerns about inflation impacts from trade tensions [4] Gold Market Analysis - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of the historical high of $4,398.00, while the short-term bearish target is to push prices below the solid technical support of $4,000.00 [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,150.00 and $4,200.00, with initial support at the overnight low of $4,056.10 and subsequently at $4,000.00 [5] - A dovish tone from the Fed's minutes could propel gold prices to test around $4,300.00 [5]
黄金期货上涨静待数据风暴 美联储纪要与非农报告即将揭晓
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-20 03:05