美联储鹰派托底震荡上行

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in the US Dollar Index are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the relative resilience of the US economy, and the divergence in non-USD currencies [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The October core PCE inflation rate fell to 3.5%, which was below expectations, leading multiple Federal Reserve officials to emphasize the need to maintain restrictive interest rates to solidify anti-inflation achievements [2]. - The annualized GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.9%, indicating a relatively strong economic resilience, which further enhances the attractiveness of the US dollar [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The Eurozone faces rising risks of economic stagnation, while the Bank of Japan continues its accommodative stance, and the British pound is pressured by the weakness of the UK economy, collectively exerting downward pressure on non-USD currencies [2]. - The overall weakness in non-USD currencies indirectly supports the upward movement of the US Dollar Index [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US Dollar Index has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 99.50, currently stabilizing above the key support level of 100.20, with the latest quote at 100.246 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 100.20, 100.10, and the 50-hour moving average around 100.05, while resistance is concentrated at 100.30, 100.40, and the previous upper boundary of 100.50 [3]. - Technical indicators suggest a strengthening upward trend for the index, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 22 [3].