美联储决策迷雾未散，分析师：迟来的9月非农数据难以照亮降息前景

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm employment data for September is expected to show a modest increase in employment, indicating a still weak labor market despite the end of the government shutdown [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Insights - The report is anticipated to reveal an increase of 50,000 jobs in both public and private sectors, which is an improvement from the initial report of 22,000 jobs added in August, but still reflects labor market weakness [1]. - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with August figures [1]. Group 2: Data Collection Challenges - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release a separate October employment report; instead, it will combine it with the November report, delaying the release to December 16 [3]. - Due to the inability to collect household data, the unemployment rate for October will not be published, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will also be delayed [3]. Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - The economic environment is characterized by widespread uncertainty, with expectations that a clearer picture of the labor market will not emerge until early February next year [3]. - Other indicators, such as ADP private sector employment statistics and layoff announcements, are providing some insights into the current state of the labor market [3]. Group 4: Predictions and Revisions - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 80,000 jobs for September, but a decrease of 50,000 jobs for October, primarily due to the expiration of a delayed resignation plan related to government spending cuts [4]. - The report will also include revisions for July and August data, which are expected to be higher than previously reported figures [4].