事关降息！美联储透露关键信息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the appropriateness of further rate cuts in December, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a rate cut in December [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - Most participants believe that a more neutral policy stance may warrant further rate cuts, while some do not agree that a 25 basis point cut is appropriate at the December meeting [1][2]. - Several officials express that maintaining rates unchanged for the remainder of the year may be suitable based on their economic outlook [1]. - Notably, two officials opposed the 25 basis point cut in October, with one advocating for a 50 basis point cut and the other against any cut [1]. Group 2: Individual Perspectives - San Francisco Fed President Daly states it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in December, emphasizing the need to wait for more data [2]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expresses a wait-and-see approach due to economic resilience, while Cleveland Fed President Mester worries that continued cuts may undermine confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target [2]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson adopts a cautious stance, noting increased downside risks to employment and a slight decrease in inflation risks, advocating for caution as rates approach neutral levels [2]. Group 3: Data Dependency - All participants agree that monetary policy is not predetermined but influenced by the latest data and changing economic conditions [3]. - The upcoming December meeting will occur without the October employment report due to the government shutdown, adding uncertainty to the Fed's decision-making process [3].