新能源车零售渗透率达57.2% 广州车展勾勒2026年市场格局

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Guangzhou International Auto Show will highlight the advancements in the domestic and international electric vehicle (EV) market, showcasing strategic changes among participating brands that outline the new market landscape for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic EV market has achieved a historic breakthrough in 2025, with over 10 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies, of which 57.2% are for EVs, leading to a 24.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to September [2] - In October, new energy vehicle sales reached 51.6% of total new car sales, indicating a significant structural shift in the domestic automotive market [2] Group 2: Sales and Production Data - In terms of production and sales, pure electric vehicles (BEVs) produced 841.0 thousand units (up 43.4% year-on-year) and sold 833.0 thousand units (up 42.9% year-on-year) [3] - Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw production of 460.2 thousand units (up 17.7% year-on-year) and sales of 461.0 thousand units (up 17.8% year-on-year) [3] - Fuel cell vehicles experienced a decline, with production at 0.3151 thousand units (down 32.7% year-on-year) and sales at 0.3164 thousand units (down 32.6% year-on-year) [3] Group 3: Policy and Market Demand - The sustained growth in EV sales is attributed to both policy incentives, such as trade-in subsidies and tax exemptions, and increasing market demand driven by a diverse product matrix and technological advancements [5] - The Guangzhou Auto Show will feature 58% of its exhibits as new energy models, significantly surpassing previous years, with 93 new models debuting, most of which emphasize electrification and intelligence [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Major global brands will participate in the auto show, showcasing a diverse competitive landscape, with traditional brands accelerating their electrification efforts and new entrants focusing on smart technology [7] - Data from October indicates that domestic brands achieved a 77.9% penetration rate in new energy vehicle retail, while joint ventures only reached 7%, suggesting a strong competitive advantage for domestic manufacturers [7] Group 5: Future Market Trends - The 2026 EV market is expected to feature three parallel technology routes: pure electric, range-extended, and plug-in hybrid, with competition focusing on ultra-fast charging, long range, and smart features [9] - The emphasis will shift from range and aesthetics to smart driving assistance systems and intelligent cabins, with advanced features becoming standard in mid-to-high-end models [11] - The collaboration between tech companies and automakers is expected to enhance the implementation of smart technologies, creating a synergistic effect that optimizes user experience [11] Group 6: Market Outlook - The 2026 Chinese EV market is projected to expand in scale, with increased competition and improved quality, supported by ongoing policies like trade-in incentives and charging infrastructure [13] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is anticipated to exceed 60%, with a growing share of high-end models and intensified competition in the mainstream market [13] - Technological advancements in battery energy density, reliability of smart driving systems, and charging efficiency are expected to attract consumers seeking quality and technological sophistication in their transportation choices [13]