观察 | 新能源车零售渗透率达57.2% 广州车展勾勒2026年市场格局

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou International Auto Show will open on November 21, showcasing the achievements of domestic and international electric vehicles and outlining the new market landscape for 2026 [1] - The domestic electric vehicle market has achieved a historic breakthrough in 2023, with over 10 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies, of which 57.2% are for electric vehicles, leading to a 24.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to September [2][5] - The market structure of the domestic automotive industry has shifted, with electric vehicles accounting for 51.6% of total new car sales in October [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The sustained growth in electric vehicle sales is driven by both policy incentives and market demand, including trade-in subsidies and tax exemptions, which enhance consumer purchasing power [5] - The variety of domestic electric vehicle products, technological upgrades, and improved charging infrastructure are meeting diverse consumer needs, making the Guangzhou Auto Show a significant platform for showcasing electric vehicles [5] Competitive Landscape - Major global brands will participate in the auto show, indicating a diversified competitive landscape, with traditional brands accelerating their electrification efforts and new entrants focusing on smart technology [7] - Data from October shows that domestic brands have a retail penetration rate of 77.9% in the new energy vehicle market, while joint ventures only account for 7% [7] Technological Trends - The 2026 electric vehicle market will feature three parallel technological routes: pure electric, range-extended, and plug-in hybrid, with a focus on ultra-fast charging, long range, and smart features [9] - The competition will shift towards intelligent driving assistance systems and smart cockpit features, with high-end models increasingly equipped with advanced technologies [11] Future Market Outlook - The Chinese electric vehicle market is expected to continue expanding, with a penetration rate projected to exceed 60% by 2026, maintaining its lead in the global market [13] - The competition in the mainstream market (priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan) will intensify, focusing on product performance and cost-effectiveness [13]