加拿大通胀数据主导汇率走向

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]