日本央行释放12月加息信号

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is hovering near a ten-month high, with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following hawkish comments from a BoJ board member, signaling a possible shift in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate recently broke above the 157 level, reaching a high of 157.18, the highest since January 15, when it hit 158.08 [2]. - The market anticipates that the USD/JPY pair will maintain its strong trend unless there are substantial interventions from Japanese authorities [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring any signals that could indicate a policy shift, as the yen has recently fallen to a ten-month low, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations suggest that both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will maintain their current policies during their December meetings, supporting Japanese and U.S. government bond yields [2]. - The recent hawkish remarks from BoJ board member Junko Koeda have heightened expectations for a potential interest rate hike as early as December, with the market interpreting her comments as a clear signal for policy normalization [1][2]. - The BoJ faces the challenge of balancing monetary policy normalization with currency stability, especially as the yen weakens [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that the daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought territory, suggesting a potential need for consolidation or a moderate pullback before the next upward movement [3]. - Key support levels are identified at the 156.60 area, with further declines below 156.00 potentially triggering additional selling pressure [3]. - If the price continues to rise, the 157.50 area is seen as a critical resistance level, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of the 158.00 mark [3].