从安倍经济学红利到“Sell Japan”：“早苗交易”退场 日本陷入股债汇三杀

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces significant market challenges as her proposed large-scale stimulus plan raises concerns about Japan's fiscal health, leading to a decline in the stock market and the yen [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market, previously buoyed by the "Takaichi trading" phenomenon, has seen a significant drop, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing its largest decline since April, falling over 3% [1][3]. - The yen has depreciated to its weakest level against the dollar since January, trading around 157 yen per dollar, with fears that it could fall further [4][12]. - Long-term Japanese government bond yields have reached their highest levels in decades, indicating rising concerns over fiscal policy and potential market instability [8][9]. Group 2: Economic Policy Concerns - Takaichi's government is expected to unveil a stimulus plan exceeding 13.9 trillion yen, with some lawmakers advocating for an even more aggressive 25 trillion yen budget [7][8]. - The cancellation of the goal for a balanced annual budget and a focus on reducing shareholder emphasis in corporate governance have raised alarms among international investors [6][12]. - Analysts warn of a potential "triple decline" scenario where the stock market, bond market, and yen all continue to fall simultaneously, reminiscent of past market turmoil in the UK [8][9]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing sentiment among investors that if Takaichi loses credibility in her policy decisions, it could lead to widespread asset sell-offs in Japan [3][6]. - Despite some short-term rebounds in the stock market, the overall performance of Japanese equities remains lackluster compared to global indices, indicating a disconnect between currency depreciation and stock performance [13][14]. - Some investors believe that Takaichi's spending plans could eventually support Japanese equities, but there are concerns that overheating the economy could necessitate interest rate hikes, complicating the market outlook [14].