CounterPoint：全球内存价格年内涨幅达50%，2026年或再涨50%

Group 1 - The global memory market is experiencing significant price pressure, with DRAM prices expected to rise by an additional 30% by Q4 2025 and a further 20% in early 2026, leading to a cumulative increase of up to 50% by Q2 2026 [1] - The core reason for the current memory supply tightness is the shortage of older memory chips, as major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize production for advanced chips to meet the high demand in the AI sector [1] - A market price inversion has occurred, where the spot price for new DDR5 memory is approximately $1.50 per gigabit, while the price for older LPDDR4 memory has surged to $2.10, exceeding even the advanced HBM3e memory [1] Group 2 - NVIDIA's strategic shift towards using LPDDR memory in servers, moving away from traditional DDR memory with error-correcting code (ECC), is expected to have a profound impact on the supply chain, creating a "seismic" change that will be difficult to absorb in the short term [3] - The initial impact of the memory market fluctuations will primarily affect low-end smartphone manufacturers using LPDDR4, with subsequent effects expected to spread to mid-range smartphones [3] - The bill of materials (BoM) cost for mid-to-high-end smartphones may increase by over 25%, potentially eroding manufacturers' profit margins and forcing companies to raise product prices, introducing uncertainty into the industry [3]