找不到有效替补市场，日本水产品有多依赖中国市场

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended imports of Japanese seafood due to Japan's failure to provide promised technical materials and the recent political tensions, significantly impacting Japan's seafood export market [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - In 2022, Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports reached 1.4 trillion yen (approximately 73.5 billion yuan), with China being the largest market, contributing 278.3 billion yen, a 25.2% increase [2]. - Japanese seafood exports to China were approximately 87.1 billion yen (around 4.3 billion yuan) in 2022, accounting for about 22% of Japan's total seafood exports [2]. - Following the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge in August 2023, Japan's seafood exports to China plummeted from 87.1 billion yen to 32 billion yen in 2023, marking the largest decline since 1998 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Future Projections - In 2024, Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports to China are projected to decrease by 29% to 168.1 billion yen, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive year [3]. - The export value of Japanese seafood to China is expected to drop to approximately 6.1 billion yen in 2024, a decline of over 90% compared to 2022 [3]. - Japan's seafood industry is struggling to find alternative markets to replace the lost Chinese market, with efforts to explore new buyers in regions like the U.S., Mexico, and Southeast Asia [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Government Goals - Japan's government aimed to increase agricultural and fishery product exports to 2 trillion yen by 2025 and 5 trillion yen by 2030, but these goals are now facing significant challenges [5]. - The imposition of a 15% tariff by the Trump administration has further complicated Japan's seafood export situation, leading potential buyers to reconsider their purchasing plans [5]. - The overall export value of Japanese seafood is projected to decline to approximately 360.9 billion yen in 2024, down 7.5% from 2023, indicating that the loss of the Chinese market has not been compensated by gains in other sectors [4].