集邦咨询：硅料短期弱稳 中下游环节价格重心下移

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a weak and stable price trend for polysilicon due to supply-side reductions and a consensus against internal competition, despite high inventory and low demand [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Polysilicon: Supply has contracted significantly, with leading manufacturers halting production, which has mitigated some negative impacts from weakened demand. However, demand remains weak, with downstream prices falling and inventory levels exceeding 430,000 tons, suppressing market confidence [2]. - Silicon Wafers: The overall inventory remains high at over 23 GW, leading to significant shipping challenges. While some leading manufacturers are attempting to maintain prices, others are resorting to lower pricing to alleviate inventory pressure. Demand for even previously strong products like the 210N has decreased, resulting in a drop in transaction volumes [3]. - Battery Cells: There is a dual decline in demand both domestically and internationally, with significant drops in orders for 210N batteries. Current inventory levels are manageable but face structural pressures, particularly as major markets like India reduce purchasing [4]. - Photovoltaic Modules: Seasonal demand is declining, with manufacturers under pressure to meet annual targets. The pricing strategy is diverging, with larger manufacturers pushing for sales while smaller ones face operational challenges. Prices have dropped to a range of 0.65-0.68 RMB/W, with further declines expected if demand does not improve [5]. Price Trends - Polysilicon Prices: Prices are currently stable, supported by supply-side reductions [2]. - Silicon Wafer Prices: The average price for N-type 183mm wafers has decreased by 1.57% to 1.25 RMB, while 210N wafers remain stable at 1.60 RMB [7]. - Battery Prices: Prices for 183N and 210N batteries have fallen to approximately 0.29 RMB/W, indicating a downward trend [4][7]. - Module Prices: The price for modules has decreased, with the current range at 0.65-0.68 RMB/W, reflecting the impact of seasonal demand and market pressures [5][7].