东北产区花生产量、品质双提升 与河南地区花生价差拉大

Core Insights - The weather conditions in Northeast China's peanut production areas have been favorable this year, leading to improvements in both yield and quality for the new harvest season [1][3] - The price disparity between high-quality peanuts from Northeast China and average-quality peanuts from Henan is expected to widen, with good quality peanuts likely to see price increases before the New Year [1][6] Production and Yield - Over the past five years, the distribution of peanut planting areas in China has slightly changed, with Henan maintaining its position as the largest producer, accounting for approximately 28%-30% of the national total [1] - The production in Liaoning and Jilin provinces is on the rise due to better soil quality and large-scale planting, with forecasts indicating significant increases in peanut production for 2025 [1] - Liaoning's peanut production is expected to reach approximately 1.1623 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.51%, while Jilin's production is projected at about 1.3224 million tons, up 21.23% [1] Quality and Market Dynamics - The quality of peanuts from Northeast China is generally good this season, with harvesting occurring about 10 days earlier than in previous years, despite some areas in Liaoning experiencing a slight decrease in oil content [3] - The market for peanuts in Henan is facing challenges due to delayed harvesting caused by rainy weather, leading to lower quality and prices [3][5] - As of November 18, the average purchase price for white sand peanuts in Northeast China was approximately 9,100 yuan per ton, an increase of 11.66% from early October, while Henan's price dropped by 10.98% to about 7,300 yuan per ton [3][6] Price Trends and Expectations - The market sentiment is cautious, with farmers in Henan showing reluctance to sell high-quality peanuts at low prices, while those in Northeast China are more willing to sell due to better quality [5][6] - There is an anticipated demand for replenishment in the wholesale market leading up to the New Year, which may limit price declines for high-quality peanuts [6] - Expected purchase prices for mid-to-high quality peanuts are projected to be between 7,000-8,000 yuan per ton in Henan and 8,400-9,600 yuan per ton in Liaoning [6]